High domestic food prices are still a cause for concern despite India hugely benefiting from a slump in global oil and commodity prices that pushed inflation into negative zone, the Economic Survey said.
India recorded a current account surplus of $5.7 billion or 0.6 per cent of GDP in the March quarter, the Reserve Bank of India said on Monday. This is the first time in ten quarters that the crucial metric of the country's external strength has turned into surplus mode. In the year-ago period, the current account deficit stood at $1.3 billion or 0.2 per cent of GDP, and the same was $8.7 billion or 1 per cent of GDP in the preceding quarter ending December 2023.
Home appliance maker Crompton Greaves Consumer Electricals reported better than expected performance in the second quarter (Q2) of 2024-25 (FY25), outperforming peers due to a strong showing in the electrical consumer durables (ECD) segment. The company's standalone sales rose by 10.5 per cent, while the ECD segment continued its growth momentum with a 12.5 per cent increase in revenues, driven by volume and pricing gains.
Exports contracted by 2.6 per cent to $34.47 billion in September even as the country's merchandise trade deficit narrows to $19.37 billion during the month under review, according to the government data released on Friday. Easing commodity prices helped in cutting down the country's import bill by 15 per cent to $53.84 billion in September, the 10th consecutive month of decline. During April-September this fiscal, exports contracted by 8.77 per cent to $211.4 billion.
The recent currency volatility - rupee's depreciation against international currencies - may have given heartburns to automakers that rely on imports or pay royalty to parent companies abroad. But for Maruti Suzuki India, favourable movement of the yen - the currency that matters the most - against the Indian rupee, has given it reasons to cheer. The yen's sharp fall against the rupee and the rupee's depreciation against the US dollar, which in turn will bump up export realisations, are set to give a margin boost to the maker of Baleno and Brezza, said analysts. The softening of commodity prices and slew of new SUV launches in the coming months will also aid margins, they said.
8 out of 10 households are planning to cut their tomato consumption if prices stay in the Rs 75-150 kg range over the next three months.
Irregular rainfall and a pick-up in commodity costs are expected to weigh on the demand and margins of fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) companies. Most companies reported a sharp expansion in gross margins in the April-June quarter (first quarter, or Q1) of 2023-24 (FY24), given the lower prices of key raw materials and earlier price hikes. Furthermore, there were expectations that cost savings being passed on could reflect in volume growth going forward. However, these hopes could be dashed if demand recovery, especially in the rural segment, stalls, and gains on the raw material front start to recede.
'The US is strongly placed to expand its crude supplies to India.'
The models of the company include flagship sedan City, hatchback Jazz, premium sedan Civic and sports utility vehicle CR-V.
Amid the ongoing festival season and ahead of the elections for five state assemblies, the Centre is closely monitoring inflation, particularly in food items, to enable it to take steps to increase their supplies. "There is a complete no-nonsense attitude when it comes to food inflation, and instructions have been issued at all levels to be very sensitive to any possible price movements in any commodity," a senior official explained. Sources have said that all departments dealing with food items have been instructed to keep a close eye on all commodities and maintain a weekly record of their price movements.
After the first quarter was washed out, exporters are now keeping their fingers crossed over a turnaround in outbound shipments to at least North America from September onwards. This comes even as other key destinations such as Europe may take longer to revive in FY24. Slowdown in key economies, as well as geopolitical tensions resulted in sluggish demand for Indian goods.
The exchange, say sources, began mock trading from early October and around 250 Indian brokers have said they'd take membership of the international exchange.
The downward trend in prices might continue as demand is unlikely to recover in May. Moreover, increased production has also put pressure on prices of commodities.
Crude oil prices could dip to the low $60s by the end of 2025 after rising to $80 a barrel in the last quarter (October-December) of 2024 - up nearly 10 per cent from current levels, suggest analysts at JP Morgan. The main players in West Asia, including Saudi Arabia and the UAE, have a strong incentive to keep the conflict contained, according to the JP Morgan report.
Obama was responding to a question as to what his administration is doing to keep the ethanol plant.
Apart from recruiting 18,000 women in state's police force, Thackeray said all female police stations will also be established in Maharashtra.
'I certainly hope the two can avoid a trade war and believe they will.' 'I expect some in India will push for retaliatory tariffs if the Trump administration applies significant reciprocal tariffs.'
Current account deficit could ease to around 3 per cent in the current fiscal year from prior estimates of about 4 per cent due to sharp drop in global commodity prices.
According to unconfirmed reports, North India has seen a Rs 3 hike. A Delhi-based dealer said the companies had told him that the price would go up by Rs 5 a bag in a day or two. "The companies raised wholesale prices and we passed on the burden to consumers," said a Mumbai-based dealer who did not want to be named. The present retail price in Mumbai is Rs 274 per bag. Market sources said Chennai had seen a hike of Rs 3.
Uttam Ghosh offers his take on the constant rise in the prices of commodities, but for the Modi government, alas!, other issues appear far more relevant
A sharp sell-off in the Indian equities markets after a spike in crude oil prices should not be surprising. Historically there is a negative correlation between stock valuations in India and the price of Brent crude oil, which is the benchmark for the Indian crude oil basket. Between 2011 and 2014, crude oil traded above $100 a barrel for an extended period, the Sensex-trailing price/earnings (P/E) was 18X, on average, during the period, nearly 22 per cent lower than the current index P/E of 23X.
The Reserve Bank of India (RBI) added another 102 metric tonnes to the domestically held gold in the April-September period, as per a disclosure made on Tuesday. The overall quantity of the precious metal stored in local safes stood at 510.46 metric tonnes as of September 30, which was up from over 408 metric tonnes as on March 31, 2024. The central bank said it added another 32 metric tonnes of gold reserves in the six-month period to take the overall tonnage to 854.73 metric tonnes, as per the half yearly report on management of foreign exchange reserves.
The RBI on Wednesday cautioned that while the Indian economy appears capable of weathering the deterioration in geopolitical conditions amid the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war, it faces headwinds from global spillovers from geopolitical tensions, elevated commodity prices and moderating external demand. The RBI, however, did not tinker with the GDP growth projection made in April. It had slashed the GDP growth projection for the fiscal 2022-23 to 7.2 per cent from its earlier forecast of 7.8 per cent.
Investors are reluctant to take long-term positions this year after the spectacular gains in 2023. The delivery-based trades on the National Stock Exchange (NSE) have declined to below 36 per cent this year from an average of 38.1 per cent in 2023. Investors tend to seek delivery for stocks where they see a long-term investment opportunity or tactical positional trade.
India's fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG) sector grew 5.7 per cent by value and 4.1 per cent by volume in the July-September quarter driven by rural demand, consumer intelligence firm NielsenIQ said in its quarterly update on Thursday. Price-led growth stood at 1.5 per cent. According to NielsenIQ data, rural volume growth outpaced urban markets for the third straight quarter despite consumption softening in both regions.
Britain's 'remain' option gaining traction, with the implied probability of such an outcome at 78 per cent.
The margins of tyre manufacturers could come under pressure given the rise in rubber prices and the moderating demand for tyres. In the past three quarters, the revenue growth for listed tyre companies has moderated from low to mid-single-digit on account of factors such as lower demand in replacement segments, weak export markets and the decline in the average selling prices to car makers (OEMs). Demand trends could remain muted in the near term, given the weak passenger vehicle replacement demand, assuming a typical replacement cycle of 3-5 years, and demand moderation in the OEM segment.
Futures trading in commodity markets is a booming business these days in India. But not many people know the technical terms used in commodity futures trade. Check out below the technical jargons of commodity futures explained in simple language.
The Reserve Bank of India, in its monetary policy for 2011-12 released earlier this month, had said that international commodity prices are a major area of concern.
The stronger than expected monsoon has not yet softened food inflation as much as it should have and in particular, vegetable prices have been impacted by weather-driven supply disruptions, said RBI Governor D Subbarao while unveiling the first quarter monetary policy review.
Electrical Consumer Durable (ECD) companies like Havells India have seen strong Q4FY24 sales and continuing seasonal demand across fans, air coolers, and room air conditioners (RAC) in addition to business-to-business sales of cables, switchgear, and professional lighting, among others. Havells India's Q4FY24 revenue rose 12 per cent year-on-year (Y-o-Y) to Rs 5,400 crore, in-line with consensus. Strong summer demand led to robust volume growth in fans and RAC and volume growth in cable and wires (C&W) due to infrastructure spending and real estate activity.
'Earnings will be the catalyst for markets to march higher from here on out.'
The Oil prices have surged and surpassed $85 per barrel after several oil producer countries announced surprise cuts in production, TASS Agency reported. According to the Russian News Agency, this is the first time since March 7 that the price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil surged. The price of futures contracts of Brent crude oil for June 2023 delivery on London's ICE surpassed $85 per barrel.
'In terms of semiconductors, challenges do remain in the pan industry, but I think we are much better than where we were a year or so back.'
'We expect market consolidation and recommend buying during market dips.'
The Interim Budget for 2024-25 (FY25) to be presented on February 1 is likely to assume 10-10.5 per cent nominal gross domestic product (GDP) growth against 8.9 per cent estimated for FY24 by the National Statistical Office (NSO). "We were waiting for the First Advance Estimates GDP numbers for FY24. "We will finalise the nominal GDP growth assumption for FY25 Interim Budget in a couple of days.
Gold, which lost its sheen to some extent in the second half of 2021, is likely to regain the glitter in the New Year and cross the Rs 55,000-per-10-grams level amid pandemic woes, inflation worries and stronger US dollar. After a stellar run up in 2020 when the yellow metal touched a record high of Rs 56,200 on the MCX in August, the prices are near Rs 48,000 per 10 grams now. This is roughly 14 per cent lower from the all-time highs and 4 per cent lesser compared to January 2021 levels.
India's consumer price index (CPI)-based inflation could ease in the coming months thanks to the arrival of kharif crops, lower international commodity prices, and a pass through of lower input costs to consumers, the finance ministry said in its Monthly Economic Review (MER) for October, which was released on Thursday. The MER, however, warned that the global macroeconomic situation remained precarious and a recession in many advanced economies would impact India's exports. "Easing international commodity prices and new Kharif arrival are set to dampen inflationary pressures in the coming months.
ABB India's March quarter results (Q1CY24) were led by strong margin performance. Revenue was, however, largely in line with estimates at Rs 3,080 crore (up 28 per cent Y-o-Y and up 12 per cent Q-o-Q). The growth was across electrification (30 per cent Y-o-Y), process automation (73 per cent Y-o-Y) and robotics & motion (8 per cent Y-o-Y).
